Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Magyar Tudományos Akadémia Kiváló Kutatóhely

Esemény kezdete: 2017.09.28. 14:00

Esemény vége: 2017.09.28. 16:00

Hely: MTA Kutatóház 1112 Budapest Budaörsi út 45.804-807-es előadóterem

Leírás:

Gyöngyösi Győző /CEU, MNB/
Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict and Political Extremism (Emil Verner-rel közös) - angol nyelvű előadás

Absztrakt: This paper studies the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on the vote share of the populist far-right. We use a natural experiment from Hungary where we exploit spatial differences in the prevalence of foreign currency borrowing of households. The unexpected and large depreciation of the domestic currency increased the debt burden of households borrowing in foreign currencies but not of the households borrowing in local currency. We show using zip code level data that the household debt shock significantly affected political preferences. A 10 percent rise in indebtedness increased the vote share of the far-right by 2 percentage points which explains one fourth of the increase. Labor market shocks, immigration and foreign currency debtors' naiveté do not account for this increase. We present suggestive evidence that the rising popularity of the far-right is driven by their taking sides with the debtors against the creditors by promoting policies to help households with foreign currency loans and not general anger with the establishment.