Közgazdaság- és Regionális Tudományi Kutatóközpont Magyar Tudományos Akadémia Kiváló Kutatóhely

The international order of territory-based sovereign nation-states (Westphalia) has been in transition towards a so-called ‘post-Westphalian order’, but pre-Westphalian structures still prevail. This has been most relevant in the Middle East and North Africa, especially in the Persian Gulf. This coincides with the increasingly delicate (im)balance of power and the changing role of the state in the Persian Gulf, expressed in such narratives as the decline of the state, the United States ‘withdrawal’ from the region as well as the Iranian-Saudi ‘Cold War.’ The paper aims at analysing war and peace in this context of the transition of the international order and the regional (im)balance of power, and highlights that war or peace in the Persian Gulf will be the outcome of the competitive multi-polarity of traditional and modern, pre-Westphalian, Westphalian and post-Westphalian actors and factors, where the modalities and methodology of all will play a role.